I deemed this the Offseason of Crazy Odds. That was after Nebraska was given 25-1 odds to win the national title in the Westgate SuperBook's initial rollout in January. By February those odds were up to 33-1.
If you care to place a bet on the Huskers winning it all today, you'll get 40-1, which is a little less crazy.
Mich, OU 14-1
LSU, Texas 25-1
ND, Wash 30-1
UF, Oregon, Neb, A&M 40-1
FSU, Iowa, Miami, MissSt, PennSt, USC, Utah, WashSt 100-1
MichSt, OkSt, TCU, VT 200-1
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) April 29, 2019
That sort of move at this time of year isn't unusual. Those super early odds are part press release/PR move (a lot of people mentioned SuperBook back in January) and part market test. If you want to make a futures wager in January, you'll encounter a pretty low limit to reduce the book's exposure to being wildly wrong.
But nearly four months later, SuperBook has had people making a bunch of small bets against those odds and can get a sense of how the public feels about these teams. Then it adjusts the odds.
Nebraska, presumably, didn't get a ton of action at 25-1 so the odds are up to 40-1 now, which are the still the third-best odds in the conference. The only Big Ten team that has shorter odds from January to now is Ohio State. Here are the national-title odds for each team in the conference:
2019 National Title Odds – Superbook
|SCHOOL||JAN. 2019||APRIL 2019|
Just for comparison, the Huskers were 300-1 in these same odds a year ago.
While the Big Ten doesn’t offer a ton of intersting moves, there were a few around the country. People are backing LSU (50-1 to 25-1), Georgia (12-1 to 7-1) and Texas A&M (80-1 to 40-1) and fading, at least a little bit, Texas (20-1 to 25-1), Washington (25-1 to 30-1), Florida (25-1 to 40-1) and Notre Dame (25-1 to 30-1).
Nebraska's odds did get shorter in one area, however. Adrian Martinez opened at 12-1 to win the Heisman Trophy, but is down to 8-1 now.
The Grab Bag
- Michigan State is a run-stopping force, a tough enough challenge to handle in perfect conditions. But what do you do when the elements make passing even more difficult? Ian Boyd takes a look at the 2018 Nebraska-MSU game for Football Study Hall.
- Jacob Padilla looks at Nebraska’s ongoing (and rapid so far) roster reconstruction.
- Greg Smith looks at some recruiting trends two weeks into the evaluation period.
Today’s Song of Today