I deemed this the Offseason of Crazy Odds. That was after Nebraska was given 25-1 odds to win the national title in the Westgate SuperBook's initial rollout in January. By February those odds were up to 33-1.
If you care to place a bet on the Huskers winning it all today, you'll get 40-1, which is a little less crazy.
Updated @CFBPlayoff title odds via @SuperBookUSA:
Mich, OU 14-1
LSU, Texas 25-1
ND, Wash 30-1
UF, Oregon, Neb, A&M 40-1
FSU, Iowa, Miami, MissSt, PennSt, USC, Utah, WashSt 100-1
MichSt, OkSt, TCU, VT 200-1
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) April 29, 2019
That sort of move at this time of year isn't unusual. Those super early odds are part press release/PR move (a lot of people mentioned SuperBook back in January) and part market test. If you want to make a futures wager in January, you'll encounter a pretty low limit to reduce the book's exposure to being wildly wrong.
But nearly four months later, SuperBook has had people making a bunch of small bets against those odds and can get a sense of how the public feels about these teams. Then it adjusts the odds.
Nebraska, presumably, didn't get a ton of action at 25-1 so the odds are up to 40-1 now, which are the still the third-best odds in the conference. The only Big Ten team that has shorter odds from January to now is Ohio State. Here are the national-title odds for each team in the conference:
2019 National Title Odds – Superbook
|SCHOOL||JAN. 2019||APRIL 2019|
Just for comparison, the Huskers were 300-1 in these same odds a year ago.
While the Big Ten doesn’t offer a ton of intersting moves, there were a few around the country. People are backing LSU (50-1 to 25-1), Georgia (12-1 to 7-1) and Texas A&M (80-1 to 40-1) and fading, at least a little bit, Texas (20-1 to 25-1), Washington (25-1 to 30-1), Florida (25-1 to 40-1) and Notre Dame (25-1 to 30-1).
Nebraska's odds did get shorter in one area, however. Adrian Martinez opened at 12-1 to win the Heisman Trophy, but is down to 8-1 now.
The Grab Bag
- Michigan State is a run-stopping force, a tough enough challenge to handle in perfect conditions. But what do you do when the elements make passing even more difficult? Ian Boyd takes a look at the 2018 Nebraska-MSU game for Football Study Hall.
- Jacob Padilla looks at Nebraska’s ongoing (and rapid so far) roster reconstruction.
- Greg Smith looks at some recruiting trends two weeks into the evaluation period.
Today’s Song of Today
Brandon is the Managing Editor for Hail Varsity and has covered Nebraska athletics for the magazine and web since 2012, Hail Varsity’s first season on the scene. His sports writing has also been featured by Fox Sports, The Guardian and CBS Sports.