Mailbag: A Better Chance NU Wins 10 Games or CU Keeps Out the Red?
Photo Credit: Eric Francis

Hot Reads: Rounding Up Nebraska vs. Troy Predictions

September 14, 2018

The line for Nebraska vs. Troy appears to have settled with the Huskers as a 10.5- to 11-point favorite even with the status of starting quarterback Adrian Martinez still in doubt. The line opened at Nebraska -7.5 at the Stratosphere on Sunday evening and by Sunday night it was up to -9.5.

This is one that’ll be somewhat interesting to watch early on Saturday morning for any significant moves. If I had to guess, and I don’t but I will, the line will come down a little bit as people are enticed by the prospect of Troy –– a solid program with a  recent history of winning –– against Nebraska possibly playing with a walk-on quarterback.

The average computer prediction at is trending much lower than the line –– Nebraska -4.7 on average, -5.31 median. Looking through those various predictions, which range from a 13-point loss to an 18-point win for the Huskers, it feels pretty noisy at this early stage of the season.

Here are a few predictions worth noting:

Sagarin – The Sagarin Rating is actually a combination of three other rankings: Points, Golden Mean and Recent. Golden Mean and Points are the only two systems beating the line through two weeks of the season. Nebraska is projected to win by 8.7 by the former, 12.9 the latter.

FPI – ESPN’s projection model is pretty high on the Huskers in this one. Per FPI, Nebraska has an 84.8-percent chance to win with a projected margin of 14.6. So far this season FPI is correctly predicting the straight-up winner of games 74.5 percent of the time, and is hitting 54.9 percent against the spread.

Kambour – The predictions of Dr. Edward Kambour are performing pretty well early this season when you factor in correct picks and how close his score predictions have been (mean square error). This system projects a 31-26 Nebraska win.

S&P+ – The ranking system that is the highest on the Huskers after one game projects a 45-22 win on Saturday.

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